the Red Sox: midseason report

Back in March, I put forth some thoughts on the 2006 Boston Red Sox. I decided to go back and reread what I had written and see how things are progressing. I've put in block quotes what I previously wrote and added some thoughts. There are plenty more things to say, but I figured I'd take it easy on everybody. At any rate, here goes.

When I look at this years Red Sox roster and I think about their chances of success, the one word that consistently comes out of my mind is "if."If Curt Schilling can regain strength in his heel/Achilles tendon, he may regain the form that made him an All-Star. I don't really think he'll become a 20 game winner again, but you never know. If this changeup he is supposedly adding to his arsenal works out, that will help an aging pitcher adjust to losing a bit of zip.

Well, it looks like he may become a 20-game winner again. He hasn’t been quite as good as he was in 2004, but he should have made the All-Star team. And the bottom line is that he is a gamer, a guy who you want pitching in an important situation. Gotta love him.

If Josh Beckett can remain healthy (which is a scary thing to say about a young pitcher), he will be a great pickup. Do you trade your best prospect for a guy like Beckett? Absolutely. Get him 30+ starts, and we'll love him. He's an ace for years to come.

Well, Beckett has been healthy, and he has a nice record, but his ERA makes me cringe (4.75). The truth is that he has been a disappointment thus far, and I think his start on Saturday showed why. He didn’t pitch well, and even when the offense picked him up he still went out and gave up more runs. Granted, Francone pulled a Grady Little and inexplicably put him out there for the 7th when he should have sat him, but Beckett still didn’t really do his job. Let’s hope he picks it up as the second half goes on.

If Keith Foulke can get healthy again, if he can regain his confidence, and if he can quit complaining about having to live in Boston, we will have our closer. As it is, this may not happen. He was terrific in the postseason of 2004, perhaps the most valuable player (along with David Ortiz). Having that Keith Foulke back would make a huge difference.

If their bullpen can get over the fact that they have no lefty to get guys out (Lenny Dinardo? come on), they'll be solid. Mike Myers wasn't the greatest reliever, but you knew what you were getting: a lefty who could get out lefties, but would get whacked by righties. But Timlin, Papelbon (who should be starting, but oh well), and Tavares should be nice. I like Tavares, he'll make up for the brawls that left town along with Bronson Arroyo. I also like him because he looks like Nosferatu. Can't beat that.

Okay, we still don’t have a lefty (although Javier Lopez coming in and striking out Jim Thome on Saturday with the bases loaded was nice), and I wasn’t entirely correct with my assessment of the bullpen, but hey at least I was right about Tavares looking like Nosferatu (seriously, check this out). Well apparently didn’t need Foulke to be our closer, because Papelbon is the second coming of Mariano Rivera (who hasn’t left, but oh well). Honestly, have you ever seen anything like Papelbon? He’s give up 3 runs! Other than him, however, the bullpen has been shaky. Timlin’s been fine, but he’s starting to show his age. They’ve had to rely on the kids (Hansen and Delcarmen) a little earlier than expected, but they’ve at least been decent, better than Tavares and the other bums.

If they can replace Bill Mueller, well, I'd be surprised. There's a sports radio morning show personality here in Boston who likes to bash Mueller for his lack of home run production. I'm sorry, is this the most important stat in judging a 3rd baseman? How about his great glovework? How about the fact he had two of the biggest clutch hits in recent Red Sox history- both off Mariano Rivera, arguably the greatest closer ever? You can't replace guys like that.

If Mike Lowell's off-year in 2005 was due to back problems that are no longer bothering him, he'll produce well in Fenway Park. If his numbers prior to last year were due to steroid use as is commonly believed, we'll see how much we miss Bill Mueller. If I were a betting man (and I am), I'd bet on the latter.

Well, I am a betting man, but luckily I didn’t bet anything, because I was dead wrong about Lowell. Mind you, I still love Bill Mueller, but Lowell has been such a great surprise. He’s on pace for about 60 doubles, along with batting over .300 and playing a great 3rd base. Not bad for a throw-in in the Beckett deal.

If Mark Loretta can get over last year's injuries, we finally have a solid 2nd baseman and, perhaps more importantly, a solid hitter to plug in the 2-hole (the first since Marty Barrett?). A .300+ hitter with some power (10+ home runs out of a 2nd baseman is a nice luxury).

Loretta’s batting over .300 and playing a great 2nd base. I love him.

If the 3-headed 1st baseman (Kevin Youkilis, J. T. Snow and Hee-Seop Choi) can produce better than Kevin Millar, it'd be a step up. That shouldn't be hard. But still, you can't help but think that they won't produce enough to keep Theo Epstein from pursuing a trade at some point this season.

Once again, Danny might have been a little off on this one. I was right about Snow and Choi, but wrong about Youkilis. Then again, I don’t think anyone thought he’d bat around .300 and play a great 1B. He may be the slowest leadoff hitter of all time, but who cares.

If Manny Ramirez can get over the fact he's still here it might cut down on the number of redundant articles and annoying blabbering on the radio. We know what's going to happen: close to the trade deadline he'll want to be traded, the Sox won't find a taker for his huge contract, he'll stay, redeclare his love for Boston and the Red Sox Nation and everyone will love him. He is, after all, the best right-handed hitter in decades (although Pujols is making his case). I love him.

I couldn’t have been more right, well, at least about Manny’s playing. Manny is great, +.300 average, +.600 slugging percentage and has even played well in left. You don’t hear too many complaints about him these days. I was wrong about the demanding a trade, but there’s still time before the trade deadline.

If Trot Nixon can overcome all his injuries (and they're numerous), it would give us another solid bat with some power in the middle of the lineup. But what are the chances of that happening? I love Nixon, and I think he's one of the most underrated players in the game. But he's never healthy enough to prove me right. So the Sox went out and got Wily Mo Pena. If he can learn to make decent contact more often than 1 in 20 swings he might fulfill his potential. I'm not holding my breath.

Well, Nixon has, for the most part, been healthy and he’s played great. He’s batting over .310 (even after an 0 for 9 day on Sunday), but his power numbers are down. That’s okay, he’s providing protection for Ortiz-Manny and is hitting lefties reasonably well (better than most will give him credit for). He’s still one of the most underrated players around. Pena was doing well before he got hurt, but with Nixon playing well, he’s not all that crucial (unlike, say, another starting pitcher, which is what we gave up for him). Chances are, Pena will take over next year full time since the Sox will probably let Nixon go.

If Coco Crisp can continue to improve I think we'll love him here in Boston. Will he be better than Johnny Damon this season? No. Will he be better in 3 years? Absolutely. Hitting in front of Loretta, Ortiz and Manny will be the best thing for his career.

I get a mulligan on this one, since Crisp was hurt for so long. He’ll be fine.

If the front office can stay out of the spotlight, the team would be much better off. But that won't happen, sorry to say.

Well, they’ve actually done a decent job of staying out of the way. This may be because we’ve gotten used to their antics and are a little more immune to them. Part of it stems from Lucchino spending less time with the media, which was a smart move. Hopefully they can stay out of the spotlight.

If you have this many "if" statement and a lot are related to injuries, that never bodes well. There are few sure things on this team. We know what we'll get from Ortiz- great power, good average and, best of all, the premiere clutch hitter in the game. We know what we'll get from Varitek- good numbers for a catcher and the best game-caller in the game. We know what we'll get from Alex Gonzalex- a great glove and a slim chance of batting over .250. And we know we'll get decent production from Wakefield and Wells (if he stays long). It's hard to know what to expect from Matt Clement, so I won't expect anything.

There are still some “if” statements that should cause us to worry. The biggest “if” is the pitching staff, as in, we only have 2 starters with any consistency (that’s including Beckett, who hasn’t been great), although Wakefield’s ERA hasn’t been horrible (4.05) he hasn’t had the best run support. We’ve relied on Jon Lester, who has pitched well but he’s only like 12 or something, so can we rely on him come October?

Ortiz has had another phenomal season, he’s on pace for 60ish home runs and over 160 RBI. His ability to hit in the clutch hasn’t diminished at all this year. There’s really nothing to say about him that hasn’t already been said.

The point is this: with this many "if's", every Sox fan should be a little worried. But then again, if some of these work out, we'll be sitting pretty. It will be a fun season, I do have high hopes. Now, if I could get some tickets without killing my bank account, that would be a miracle.

Right now the Red Sox are in first place. The Yankees have some serious issues, and the Blue Jays haven’t done much. And despite their success against the defending champion Chicago White Sox this weekend, I don’t think the Red Sox will stand up against the American League in the postseason. If they can get to the World Series, I’d pick them to win, simply because the American League is far superior to the National League. The Red Sox need more pitching, and they need to learn to hit lefties. We’ll see what happens, but as they currently stand, I don’t think they will win the World Series.

By the way, is anyone else astonished by the gap of talent between the American and National Leagues? I mean, after the AL swept the last two World Series I think we knew which league was the best, but did anyone realize just how much better? Even Kansas City was beating NL teams, and they can’t buy a win in the AL.

Many people have offered suggestions for why this is the case, and I’m sure the reasons are numerous. I’ve heard plenty of people say that it’s because the AL has a DH, therefore their offenses are better. But I think that misses the point a bit. In reality, because the AL has better offenses, that forces the teams to go out and find better pitching. Yes, the AL pitching is far better. How else do you explain Bronson Arroyo’s All-Star season? How else do you explain that Clemens went from an above average AL pitcher to a dominant Cy Young Award winning pitcher in the NL? Why did Randy Johnson struggle so much when he came to the AL? Carl Pavano? Even Josh Beckett (who’s still young enough to come around)? The truth is that the AL is forced to go out and find the best pitching available. The DH has made the league more competitive in this respect.

Anyway, I’m looking forward to the second half of the season. Will Theo trade for another starter (John Smoltz?)? Will he end up giving away one of the prospects to do it? Will Crisp regain pre-injury form? Will Youkilis continue his surprising season? Will the tandem of Manny & Big Papi combine for 100 home runs and 300 RBI? Will the Sox outlast the Yankees for the division? There are plenty of other questions, which is all the more reason why we should be watching.