another football post: Pats-Colts, this Sunday

Imagine a team with a star quarterback. Now imagine that this team has played the last two games with him playing poorly, and I mean poorly. Now imagine that this team has a defense without many Pro Bowlers, but who have played the last two games with tenacity and grit. This team has won both of those games despite the quarterback because the defense stepped up and played big.

What scares me is that this describes both the Patriots and the Colts, but perhaps the Colts moreso than the Pats. What scares me is that this is the formula the Pats have used over and over again throughout this decade, and they've won 3 Super Bowls. Contrast that with the Peyton Manning-led Colts, who won because their quarterback would feast on inferior defenses and his defense was just good enough to hold on. That formula never works. But for the last two games the Colts have won even though Manning has played poorly; they've won because the defense was able to shut down the opposing team. This has been a hallmark of Patriots football, now the Colts are trying for their version.

It's funny how the human mind works. Last week the Pats were the heavy underdogs, and I convinced myself they would win (and I was right, in case you forgot). This week the Pats might still be underdogs (largely because of the national media's collective mancrush on Peyton Manning), but many give them a good shot at winning. And I find myself finding reasons why this will be the year the Colts finally beat the Pats in a game that matters. I think years of being a Red Sox fan and watching them lose so often has conditioned me to think this way (it's funny how winning a World Series hasn't changed that too much).

But, I've decided to be more brave and actually attempt a real pick. Instead of expecting to lose and celebrating at the joy of winning, I've opted to expect what I think will really happen. I may not be successful, but I'll give it a whirl. So with that in mind, here are some thoughts:

The Colts defense has been playing well, but it's easy to overstate their effort. This past Sunday was against the Baltimore Ravens, who own one of the worst offenses in football. When you're entire offense is built around a way-past-his-prime quarterback, a decent tight end and a decent running back, well, you're in trouble. And their playoff opener was against the Kansas City Chiefs, a team coached by Herm Edwards. We Patriots fans know Herm well from his days with the New York Jets. I'm not sure Herm could have coached a worse game, it was a gift to the Colts, quite frankly. But, you can't hold that against the Colts defense. You can only play the teams you're scheduled to play, and they've beaten them. That's all you can do.

The Colts clearly have an advantage in the kicking game, where they now have Adam Vinatieri, the great former Patriots kicker. He's the greatest clutch kicker in football history, whereas we have a rookie kicker. Let's hope this doesn't come down to field goals.

I find it funny how many people in the national media are claiming that this is "Peyton Manning's time". In fact, a sports show here in Boston got a lot of mileage out of it, and I tend to agree with them. Since when does that pass as in-depth analysis? "Why will the Colts win this game? Because it's Peyton's time." Does that make sense? Does this work in any other realm of life (other than the Oscars)? Does it work on Wall Street? What about in your job? School? What about dating, does it work there? Wait, nevermind.

On the flip side, maybe the fact that Peyton is able to win despite playing poorly is a sign of things changing. Oddly enough, if he had sprung for 5 touchdown passes over the last two games I would be less worried, because it would mean to me that he's just the same old Peyton. But he's taken a page out of Tom Brady's playbook- play crappy football for a while, put together a drive or two when it matters. Brady's won 3 Super Bowls. Doesn't necessarily make much sense, but it scares me a bit.

As for the Patriots, they'll have to run the ball well. Looking back 2 years ago, most thought the Patriots would lose to the Colts in the playoffs, but the Pats introduced them to Clock Killin' Corey Dillon. It would be nice to see Dillon run the ball down their throats like old times.

The front 7 for New England will have to get pressure on Manning and be able to stop the run without help from the secondary. The Colts have great receivers, as well as a good tight end, so the defensive backfield will have their hands full. In fact, I think New the Patriots will have to cheat with a linebacker dropping back, which may mean there are only 6 guys playing up front, especially if Rodney Harrison is out again.

The biggest advantage the Patriots have is the coaching. Belicheck has consistently come up with game plans to confuse Manning. I realize that the Colts have won the last 2 regular season matchups, but there were major injury problems last year and this year the Pats have improved tremendously since they played earlier in the season. Some may call this a cop-out, I call it truth. In football, more than any other sport, coaching counts, advantage New England.

So here is my call for this Sunday, subject to deletion if I'm wrong:

Colts- 24
Patriots- 31