Thursday, September 20, 2007

Wild Card Baseball: Stealing the Heart of September

The Red Sox are currently manufacturing a terrific collapse. All season long, they have dominated the American League East. Their lead over the Yankees in late May was 14.5 games; it's been in double digits for most of the season. On July 5 their lead was 12 games (Toronto was in 2nd place at that time). Yet here they are, on the morning after being swept in Toronto, with only a 1.5 game lead. In less than 4 months, their lead has dropped 13 games.

And they don't really care.

I'm not saying they want to lose or anything like that. But there's one major reason why they don't have to worry about losing this lead to the Yankees: they will still make the playoffs. Thanks to our friendly wild card playoff system, the team with the best record that doesn't win their division will still go to the playoffs. I remember when this was instituted, the argument was that it would create more excitement because it allows for another race to make the playoffs. In my mind, it was the "race for the best 2nd place team."

Now, I know there are some who will point out that the Red Sox would never have won the World Series in 2004 if it weren't for the wild card system. In fact, they wouldn't have made the playoffs in over a decade if it weren't for the wild card system. So do I think the Sox' World Series championship is invalid?

No, I don't. And here's why: the wild card system is necessary because of the arrangement of the leagues. With a 3-division format, you need the wild card for at least two reasons. 1) You have an uneven number of playoff teams and 2) there's no guarantee that the 2nd best team is one of the 3 division winners (in fact, this has often been the case with the Sox, in '99, '03 and '04). With the current system, the wild card has to happen. It does help in making sure the top 2 teams get into the postseason. In 2004, there is no doubt the Red Sox were one of the top 2 teams in the AL (in all of baseball, actually). They had every right to be in the postseason. But the wild card also assures us of the possibility that a team will take 2nd place rather than fight it out for 1st place.

And that is exactly what is happening this September. The Sox don't have any real reason to fight the Yankees for the division. Sure, they could get homefield advantage. There's always pride in beating the Yankees. But honestly, if you ask Terry Francona (and if he's being honest), he'd rather rest his guys and have them ready for October rather than risk wearing them out, even if that means losing the division.

You can't blame him, of course. He's just taking advantage of the system. Major League Baseball has arranged the leagues in such a way that the wild card is a necessity. Short of dropping teams, the wild card must stay. But this year, it hasn't created another playoff race, it's created apathy.

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